Lorenzo Maria Pacini
Russia's approach to geoengineering is part of a complex international debate, in which competition between states is intertwined with the need for multilateral cooperation.
Modern weather control systems
Understanding the use of new widespread technologies is essential to understanding how the domains of warfare are evolving. One of the most fascinating, and often misunderstood, aspects is that of geoengineering.
The Russian government has invested over a million dollars to prevent rain on a national holiday. According to the official TASS news agency, the Kremlin has allocated nearly 86 million rubles (about $1.3 million) to ensure favorable weather conditions during the May Day celebrations and the days that follow, particularly May 9 for the big parade.
This is an event of international importance that each year marks a checkpoint for Russian culture. Cloud seeding is based on the use of chemical compounds that induce condensation and the fall of water droplets and consists of artificially modifying clouds so that they release rain ahead of schedule, causing precipitation to fall in other places or at other times to prevent it from disrupting specific events.
Special aircraft fly through 'critical' cloud formations and release these substances, which freeze the water particles, causing them to grow and eventually fall to the ground.
Cloud seeding has also been used in other countries, for example to promote good weather during the opening of the Beijing Olympics, in China, where it is now customary to adopt this practice before major holidays to maintain favorable weather conditions. Some companies have even started offering this service to private customers, for example to guarantee sunny days for weddings.
Russia, for its part, has maintained active weather modification programs since the Soviet era and currently conducts large-scale cloud seeding operations in several regions. The Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring oversees weather modification activities aimed at protecting agricultural areas from hail damage and increasing rainfall. Moscow regularly uses cloud seeding to prevent rain during national holidays and important events, spending around $40 million a year on weather control measures. Russian scientists at the Central Aerological Observatory have developed advanced silver iodide seeding techniques that have increased regional precipitation by up to 20% in test areas. The country's budget for weather modification has grown significantly since 2020, with a greater focus on crop protection and water resource management in drought-prone regions.
Agricultural and environmental uses
In agriculture, one of the most important applications is the manipulation of atmospheric precipitation. Since the Soviet era, Russia has developed cloud seeding programs aimed at both increasing rainfall in drought-stricken areas and reducing hail damage in the most productive agricultural areas, such as those in the North Caucasus. These interventions are based on the use of silver iodide or other substances capable of promoting water vapor condensation. The objective is twofold: to ensure a more stable water supply to cultivated land and to protect crops from destructive weather events. Although the effectiveness of these methods is the subject of international scientific debate, they continue to be an integral part of Russian agricultural policy, especially in contexts of increasing climate vulnerability.
Another area of agricultural interest is the controlled thawing of permafrost and soil management in northern regions. Rising global temperatures are already compromising the stability of large areas of permafrost, releasing methane and carbon dioxide. Some Russian research has suggested that geoengineering could be used to accelerate or control these processes, with the aim of making areas that are currently inhospitable cultivable, but this is a controversial prospect, as the agricultural benefits could be offset by negative environmental consequences, for which scientific studies are still needed.
On the environmental front, Russia has resorted to geoengineering techniques for water and forest resource management. The best-known example is the use of artificial methods to reduce the risk of fires in the immense Siberian forests, through operations to create artificial rain or disperse chemical agents to contain the spread of fire. In addition, there have been experimental projects to partially divert rivers or lakes in order to irrigate agricultural land or maintain the navigability of inland waterways, which are crucial to the country's economy.
Some Russian research institutes have studied solar reflection techniques (e.g., using stratospheric aerosols) as a possible response to climate change. Although these projects are still at the theoretical or experimental stage, Russia is showing strategic interest in them, both to mitigate global warming and to gain a geopolitical advantage in sensitive regions such as the Arctic.
Geopolitically speaking
From a geopolitical point of view, the use of geoengineering in Russia cannot be considered an isolated phenomenon. The ability to artificially modify the climate and manage natural resources has direct implications for international relations.
Firstly, controlling atmospheric phenomena can affect agricultural and trade balances: improved productivity in previously marginal regions would strengthen the country's food self-sufficiency, reducing its dependence on imports and consolidating Russia's position in global grain markets.
Secondly, the focus on the Arctic gives geoengineering strategic value. The gradual opening of polar sea routes and access to new energy resources make it crucial to be able to control climate processes in that area. The adoption of geoengineering techniques, even if only at an experimental level, is therefore perceived as a tool of soft power and technological influence.
In general, geoengineering can be used as a tool of pressure and deterrence, generating short-term but also medium- and long-term effects. The implications could have a deterrent effect similar to nuclear weapons, because it threatens to destabilize an adversary's economy or food security, which in turn leads to political and military choices.
Nations with advanced climate or atmospheric manipulation technologies gain a significant strategic advantage over less technologically developed states. This could potentially lead to the establishment of new types of regional hegemony (a topic that certainly deserves further exploration).
Unlike conventional weapons, the effects of geoengineering can be difficult to attribute with certainty. This creates strategic ambiguity: a state could suffer significant damage without being able to prove the intervention of another power. Such uncertainty can increase tensions and suspicions, generating diplomatic or military conflicts even in the absence of a declared act of war. In fact, we are talking about forms of hybrid warfare.
In this vein, Russia's approach to geoengineering is part of a complex international debate, in which competition between states is intertwined with the need for multilateral cooperation.