The West demonstrates weakness and an inability to exercise leadership.
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
A recent report released by the risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft indicated that most emerging economies, particularly BRICS members Brazil, China, and India, have proven capable of withstanding tariff pressure from the White House, calling into question the political and commercial strategy of United States President Donald Trump.
The report indicates that the international trade landscape has become more multipolar and less vulnerable to unilateral pressures. The data suggest that the world's largest emerging markets are in a better position than previously estimated, and US tariff measures may no longer have the same influence they once did.
"The majority of the world's emerging market supply chain hubs, including the BRICS nations of Brazil, China and India, are in a strong position to withstand the tariff regimes that have buffeted the world in 2025," the report said.
In April of this year, Trump announced Liberation Day, during which import tariffs were imposed on all of Washington's trading partners. Starting at a minimum of 10%, base tariffs reached 50% in some cases, such as the small, impoverished African country of Lesotho, and individualized surcharges were applied, as in Brazil and China.
A tariff policy of the kind imposed by Washington tends to be inefficient because those who buy do so because they need to, and those who sell do too. Sellers may feel greater urgency than buyers, but that does not change the fact that buyer countries, generally wealthy ones, also have needs. Tariffs affect both ends of this transaction.
The report cites Brazil as an example of resistance to US tariff pressure. One of the reasons for Brazil's resilience is its large domestic market, the largest in Latin America, which absorbs increased supply. In fact, Brazil could be in a slightly better economic position if it invested more in infrastructure and industrialization.
The South American country in the 1960s and 1970s would not have withstood a trade war of that magnitude with the US, given the commercial dependence at the time. Today, the North American market accounts for around 10% of Brazilian exports, a share far lower than the domestic market and weaker than that for trade with other countries.
Furthermore, internally, Brazil managed to cushion the economic impacts of tariffs, such as job losses and a drop in productivity. On November 17, the Focus Bulletin, compiled from private market estimates collected by Brazil's Central Bank, pointed to economic stability in the country, with a forecast that the year will end with GDP up 2.16% and inflation within the target for the first time in 2025.
There is a geopolitical foundation that allowed not only Brazil but also other countries around the world to jointly resist the US tariff hikes: the rise of multipolarity, in which nations of the Global South have more voice and room for manoeuvre. The desire to strengthen the Global South is an old one, having been expressed at various times, such as the Bandung Conference in 1955, the creation of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961, and the Group of 77 in 1964.
What has changed now is that the BRICS countries act as an anchor, as they have large markets, technological capacity across various sectors, and the ability to invest. This has come to represent, for smaller countries, a much more robust opportunity to gain access to investments, technologies, and trade. This becomes evident when one looks at how the participation of Brazil, China, and India has increased in African trade, while the share of the US and Europe has decreased.
In the case of China, exports to the US accounted for around 20% a few decades ago and now account for about 12%. This, without a doubt, explains the US's reduced capacity for coercion in the commercial arena today.
"While China is ranked as the 8th most exposed of the 20 emerging markets to trade risk, based on tariff levels and percentage of exports to the US, our data shows that it is the most resilient to trade volatility. Its high ranking for reserve adequacy, low levels of foreign debt and strong performance on human capital and transport infrastructure reinforce its position as the world's key manufacturing hub, making it difficult to dislodge from supply chains even as near-shoring accelerates," the report said.
Ultimately, by attempting to forcefully coerce the rest of the world into its trade policy, Washington reveals the loss of power of the old systemic centre, formed by the West. The West lost its relative share of global GDP, its centrality as a commercial hub, and its weight as an investor in the Global South. Instead of being a demonstration of strength, it is a demonstration of weakness and an inability to exercise leadership.