Martin Jay
Does anyone, even in his own circle of fools, believe the Venezuela stunt is really about drug trafficking?
Benjamin Netanyahu's recent visit to Trump's lair marks their sixth one-on-one meeting since Trump took office - a telling detail on several levels. The main point is that Bibi is struggling to convince Trump that the U.S. and Israel need to go to war with Iran, a move Trump is resisting. The scenario of dragging America into another "forever war" in the Middle East is not appealing to Trump, whose foreign policy misadventures around the globe are backfiring and boxing him into several corners. Some analysts already point to new conflicts brewing on multiple fronts following his preposterous act of high-seas piracy - seizing oil tankers leaving Venezuela.
Going to war with Iran makes no sense for the U.S., which would likely emerge the loser - and Trump does not want to suffer the same fate as Jimmy Carter, whose single term was defined by failed Iran policies. It is also about preserving Trump's own delusional narrative: that his June initiative last year to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities was a success. If he were to agree to support an Israeli strike, even indirectly - say, with in-flight refuelling - the resulting media backlash would be overwhelming, and it's the last thing he needs right now.
What's interesting is that Trump does not want to deploy U.S. troops in the Middle East. It's an arena where he is profoundly ignorant and out of his depth at the best of times. Somewhat comically, this does not mean he is unwilling to flex American military muscle elsewhere - contrary to what we've been led to believe about his supposedly "anti-war" stance.
His current manoeuvres in Venezuela are particularly worrying. It's hard to see how seizing Venezuelan oil tankers bound for China is anything other than playing with fire. This represents his most brazen - and dangerous - gambit to date. China will not take this lying down, and we should not be surprised if Beijing retaliates tit-for-tat, just as it did in response to last year's tariff threats. It is not far-fetched to imagine China responding in kind, perhaps by seizing an American or allied tanker. They have the means, technology, and military hardware to do so. Why wouldn't they?
The problem is Trump's fragile ego. When China previously threatened higher tariffs, began dumping the dollar, and restricted America's access to rare earth minerals, backing down was an obvious choice. But if China seizes a U.S. oil tanker, the media spotlight will intensify, making it much harder for Trump to retreat quietly. With Trump, his mercurial, almost childlike decision-making - which can shift in less than a day based on vanity and emotion - is simply too dangerous in a standoff with China.
Trump is a bully. He likes to pick fights with smaller powers like India or South American nations, throwing his weight where he expects no real resistance. But China is different: an emerging superpower whose rapidly growing economy depends on fuel security. Throwing a spanner in those works is sheer madness - and shows he is not being advised by anyone competent. Marco Rubio may well be the most ineffective, farcical foreign policy stooge ever to occupy the White House.
The real worry, as ever, is miscalculation and the escalatory spiral that follows - one that cannot be undone. In the 1970s and '80s, presidents like Nixon, Carter, and even Reagan had seasoned diplomats in the region who could act as a safety catch for leaders who shot from the hip. Today, diplomacy is often even less effective than journalism - the British government recently appointed a teenager as its new ambassador to Morocco. Diplomats have become social-media-obsessed functionaries struggling to stay relevant. Trump just fired thirty diplomats who were not aligned with his political views, proving that envoys are no longer important conduits but mere cronies and yes-men.
The problem with Trump is that international diplomacy could have been his saving grace, but his "Trump First, Israel Second, America Third" approach is starting to be noticed - with disastrous consequences. Japan, for instance, recently began selling off its U.S. treasuries. Even ordinary social media users are connecting the dots: Trump's interventions in Venezuela, Nigeria, and Greenland all target regions rich in oil or minerals. It doesn't take a genius to see the pattern.
Does anyone, even in his own circle of fools, believe the Venezuela stunt is really about drug trafficking ? Netanyahu may be playing the oil card with Iran, but it's clear Bibi will have to play dirty to drag America into a war - perhaps by letting Iran strike Israel and watching the pro-Israel deep state machine turn on Trump. For Trump, sleeping with a scorpion under the bed might be preferable to confronting that lobby with the fake bravado he so loves to champion.