Raphael Machado
The world is being redrawn into spheres of influence, and only military might and the willingness to use it seem to be effective barriers against foreign interventions.
Following an operation that began at 2:00 AM Caracas time, U.S. special forces undertook the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores and extracted them from the country. The operation lasted only 30 minutes and involved little more than a handful of helicopters, operating very close to the ground.
The U.S. government and its supporters reacted with euphoria to the operation's "great feat." Donald Trump stated that only the USA could do something like this.
Nevertheless, so far, the event resembles more of a propaganda fireworks display than a great military feat. And this is because the extraction appears to have taken place, by all indications, without any opposition from the Venezuelan state.
For months - since tensions between the USA and Venezuela intensified - there has been speculation about the existence of secret negotiations between Maduro and Trump. Newspapers like the New York Times, in fact, reported that Maduro had offered "everything" to Trump, but that he had refused the various offers.
Several other negotiations are said to have occurred, including an offer for Maduro's exit, but with the maintenance of the Bolivarian system in power and with U.S. co-participation in the exploitation of Venezuelan oil alongside PDVSA. Supposedly, the USA would have refused these offers.
It is also important to point out that at least since November 2025, the Brazilian and Colombian governments have been trying to convince Nicolás Maduro to resign. The important Brazilian businessman and lobbyist Joesley Batista, who is an ally of both Lula and, today, of Trump, is said to have traveled to Caracas to negotiate an exit for Maduro. Supposedly, without success.
And yet, the fact remains: any portable anti-aircraft system, like a MANPAD, could have shot down any of the Apaches used in the operation. But none were used. In fact, there is no evidence of the use of Venezuelan defensive systems during the operation. The official narrative says they were all simply "deactivated." This might perhaps explain the inaction of the BUKs, but not the absence of use of other systems.
Furthermore, we have not seen signs similar to those in Syria, with the mass desertion of military personnel. Padrino López and Diosdado Cabello, respectively Ministers of Defense and Interior, have full control over the Armed Forces and the Bolivarian National Guard. The streets are, by all indications, calm. There are no celebrations by oppositionists, nor any movement by the opposition in general.
Perhaps Maduro's removal was, in fact, negotiated. But not necessarily with Maduro himself. It is impossible, however, to point decisively to someone responsible for this. In a purely technical sense, naturally, the primary responsibilities would fall on Venezuelan counterintelligence and Maduro's personal security apparatus - but, in this case, it may have simply been a matter of failure, more than betrayal.
Now, it is premature to properly speak of a "regime change" in Venezuela.
In his statements to the press immediately after the operation, Donald Trump stated that the USA would conduct a "political transition" in Venezuela; but there is, truly, no U.S. presence in Venezuela at this moment. Whoever expects a takeover by María Corina Machado is mistaken: Trump has already ruled her out, considering her inept due to her lack of popularity with the Venezuelan people. On the contrary, he seems satisfied with dealing with Delcy Rodríguez, who has already assumed Venezuelan leadership, supported by consensus by Chavista governors, ministers, and generals.
Trump claims that Rodríguez would be willing to collaborate completely with the USA and, in practice, "hand over" Venezuelan oil. But all public statements from Venezuela so far go in the direction of condemning the seizure, demanding Maduro's return, and emphasizing that Venezuela will resist Trump's ambitions. In other words, there exists a problematic gap between Trump's declarations and what is really happening in Venezuela.
Naturally, the possibility is not excluded, for example, of a potential "backroom deal," allowing the USA to operate in the Venezuelan oil sector, with Chavismo maintained in power in Caracas. Maduro's fate in a negotiation of this type remains open. Everything is possible, from the death penalty to exile, including a prison sentence with eventual release.
The main political actor in Venezuela, however, is the armed forces, not the PSUV, nor even Maduro. And regardless of the arrangement reached and Venezuela's near political future, this is unlikely to change.
What is evident, however, is that we have here a significant change in the international panorama. The USA treated the operation as a "police action" - Maduro is being indicted for crimes ranging from drug trafficking to possession of machine guns (!) in violation of U.S. firearms legislation (!!), treating Venezuelan territory, in practice, as if it were U.S. territory.
The mutual recognition between countries as sovereign states and, therefore, legitimate belligerents in case of conflict, implying obedience to certain rules of engagement, constitutes a significant achievement of civilizations. The criminalization of foreign sovereigns opens the door to savagery and to unlimited conflicts devoid of rules of civility.
But beyond this dimension of a return to the same mentality of the piracy era, it becomes quite clear that appeals to International Law and the UN are, today, of little effectiveness.
The world is being redrawn into spheres of influence, and only military might and the willingness to use it seem to be effective barriers against foreign interventions.