July 9, 2026
The last three days have led to another escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
At the beginning of the week more tankers took the southern route along the Omani coast instead of the northern route on which Iran, following the Memorandum of Understanding, insists. The Omani route is under observation and protection by U.S. military assets.
Iran is not the only one which interprets clause 5 of the MoU - "the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements..." - to give it exclusive rights to regulate the traffic in the Strait.
Gérard Araud @GerardAraud - 19:59 UTC · Jul 7, 2026
At the first reading by any diplomat, the MoU was obviously giving Iran a free hand in the strait of Hormuz....
On Tuesday Iran fired drones against some five cargo ships which took the U.S. protected Omani route. Other ships on the same route immediately started to divert. Some returned to their anchoring positions while other proceed along the northern route.
Late Tuesday the U.S. canceled its regulation which had lifted U.S. sanctions against the sale of Iranian oil. The lifting of sanctions had been one of the MoU provisions.
On Wednesday morning a large U.S. attack was launched against targets along the Iranian coast. Some 60 of the targets were random civilian fishing vessels which the U.S. claimed to be IRGC speed boats.
Iran announced 'consequences' and stated that the U.S. was (again) in breach of the MoU provisions:
The [foreign] ministry said the strikes constituted "a flagrant violation" of the first clause of the Pakistan-brokered MoU, which requires the cessation of military operations.
It said that the attacks, coupled with the US Treasury Department's decision the previous night to revoke Iran's oil sales authorization, were in violation of arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz, adding that the continuation of Israeli military aggression and terrorist acts against Lebanon, had rendered "important and fundamental parts" of the agreement ineffective.
"The responsibility for the dangerous consequences of this escalation rests with the treaty-breaking US regime," the statement said.
Iran warned its neighboring Gulf states of providing bases for U.S. aggression:
The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters has declared that the origin of any support provided to the "aggressor US military" in attacks against Iran's sovereignty and territory would be regarded as a legitimate target for the Iranian Armed Forces.
Iran responded to the U.S. attack by launching missiles and drones against U.S. military positions in Kuwait and Bahrain. It also downed an expensive U.S. MQ-9 'Reaper' drone.
Trump declared the ceasefire to be over:
Asked whether the ceasefire and memorandum of understanding with Iran is now over after the latest attacks, Trump said it was.
"It's a very interesting question to me. I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore," Trump said.
"They're scum. You know what scum is ? They're scum. They're sick people. They're led by people, and they're vicious, violent people."
He added: "And if they had a nuclear weapon, they'd use it. As far as I'm concerned, it's over."
Oil prices have risen 6% and are now likely to increase further.
Should the oil prices continue to increase it is likely that Trump, who spoke of "the Islamic Republic of Japan", will again change his mind.
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.