Lorenzo Maria Pacini
War is either won or lost. Reaching negotiations does not mean a draw.
An attractive proposal
A few hours after the grand parade on May 9-a clear demonstration of Russia's strength-with numerous heads of state in attendance, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin proposed holding negotiations with the United States of America to discuss Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey. This is not the first time that Turkey has been proposed as a 'neutral venue' for treaties, and there is a reason why it is now much more strategic than in the past.
Let's take it in order.
Putin made the proposal just as European leaders loyal to Ukraine's clownish leader were meeting in Kiev on Saturday, May 10. In that context, Zelensky responded on Sunday morning, May 11, that the progress of the proposal is a positive sign, but before negotiations he demands a ceasefire, which he wants to start on May 12, for at least 30 consecutive days, as also supported by Stramer and Macron. Putin, for his part, stressed that a ceasefire is a matter for negotiation and should therefore be discussed in Istanbul, not in advance and unilaterally.
Russia had already proposed various ceasefires, such as the one at Easter or the one for the May 9 parade, but Ukraine has always responded with a "no" and continued its attacks.
Trump will intervene in the matter, having been called upon to participate in the negotiations. After all, the U.S. president has repeatedly said that he wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, so any possible peace proposal between Russia and Ukraine represents an opportunity to score points.
Trump is expected to be in the Middle East from Tuesday 13 to Friday 16, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. What are the chances that he will make a quick flight to Turkey while Putin and Zelensky are there?
On social media, Truth wrote:
"Russian President Putin does not want a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but prefers instead to meet on Thursday in Turkey to negotiate a possible end to the bloodshed. Ukraine should accept this proposal IMMEDIATELY. At least it will be able to determine whether an agreement is possible or not, and if it is not, European leaders and the United States will know where we stand and can proceed accordingly! I am beginning to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who is too busy celebrating the victory of World War II, which could not have been won (not even remotely!) without the United States of America. HOLD THE MEETING NOW!!
So a three-way meeting is on the cards: Putin, Trump, and Zelensky, all together in Turkey.
Tactics and strategy
From Russia's point of view, this is a great opportunity. The Kremlin could move forward with certain criteria in mind.
First of all, Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952 and, due to its strategic position, is the country that must be removed first, because it opens and closes the passage between East and West, between the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, between Europe and the Middle East. Removing Turkey from NATO is a long-standing ambition and an attempt that has been underway for years.
Choosing Turkey as the meeting place puts the country at high risk: Erdogan's already shaky government will find itself involved in negotiations in which it could be called upon to pay the price. If the negotiations fail, Erdogan could find himself bearing part of the blame, thus risking being totally compromised.
Putin could in fact propose as a condition that Turkey be removed from the Atlantic Alliance, greatly weakening NATO's military and the U.S.'s hold in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. With negotiations between Israel and Palestine and all the international controversy in the offing, Turkey represents an advantage for Israel, because they have always supported each other. In this way, Putin would be able to exclude much of Trump's influence. The American operates with peace of mind in the Middle East because he knows he has Turkey's backing, so without that he would be at high risk of compromising his mission.
Let us not forget the importance of Syria's role in the fall of Bashar Al-Assad's Syrian government, a slight that Russia remembers very well and that sooner or later will have to be repaid.
This is precisely how Trump's conflicting statements on Palestine and Israel in recent weeks should be interpreted: they were bluffs, in perfect poker style, designed to provoke a reaction from his opponent and try to discover his next moves. But Russia is well aware of this American style and is ready to react.
Holding the talks in Istanbul, the Second Rome, is highly symbolic: for the Americans who conquered the First Rome, it means taking a step forward; for the Russians, who consider Moscow the Third Rome, it means looking back to the past, leaving the others behind because they are already ahead. It is a very subtle but highly effective form of communication.
While President Vladimir Putin is open to the possibility of resuming talks with Ukraine, there is no shortage of critical voices within Russian society.
The Oplot movement, which is close to radical patriotic positions, has issued a statement saying: 'If, in the end, the objectives of the special military operation are not achieved, all our losses will have been in vain. How many people have died for nothing? We have endured restrictions for nothing. Everything will have been in vain." The text questions the legitimacy of Zelensky's government, denounces the risk of a frozen conflict, and criticizes Turkey's involvement as a potential mediator. According to Oplot, the minimum conditions remain: denazification, demilitarization, recognition of the new regions, and full responsibility for the crimes committed.
Indeed, these are the conditions that Putin has always emphasized, and it is likely that they will be reiterated at the meeting scheduled for May 15 with Zelensky and Trump. The most challenging task will be to make Zelensky understand that his position is not one from which he can talk tough and that he should therefore begin to think more rationally. The whole of Europe risks crashing into the Eastern Bear simply because a cocaine addict continues to provoke and say nonsensical things, with the blessing of his employers.
Objectively, Russia has a strategic advantage, and this is forcing European and American leaders to explore solutions they would never have considered necessary. There is much more realpolitik in these situations than in many parliamentary sessions, press statements, or phantom multi-year plans.
War is either won or lost. Reaching negotiations does not mean a draw.