September 15, 2025
In February 2025 the U.S. started talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine. The Europeans were against such talks. They were still dreaming of winning the lost war - of keeping control over Ukraine by providing it with security guarantees.
The Trump administration gave them a lecture in form of a catalog of questions. As I summarized the issue at that time:
The U.S. has recognized that there aren't enough troops, money or will to achieve a better negotiation position for what's left of Ukraine. The European 'elite' still fails to get that.
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There are still dreams of 'security guarantees' which would be given to Ukraine after it files for peace or surrenders.
No such guarantees would make any sense. When peace is achieved there will be only one manner that can prevent a new outbreak of war: good behavior towards Russians and Russia by what will be left of Ukraine.
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The U.S. negotiation team handed the Europeans a list of questions that will hopefully help them to come to grips with that..
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Here are the questions with answers by me in Italic:
1) What do you view as a Europe-backed security guarantee or assurance that would serve as a sufficient deterrent to Russia while also ensuring this conflict ends with an enduring peace settlement?
There is no Europe-backed guarantee possible that would be a 'sufficient deterrent'.
2) Which European and/or third countries do you believe could or would participate in such an arrangement?
Each could provide a few dozen soldiers (plus rotations). None has the size of forces and/or stamina to really commit to the mission.
Are there any countries you believe would be indispensable?
The U.S. - if it would give nuclear guarantees to prevent the eventual annihilation of any 'security guarantee' force.
Would your country be willing to deploy its troops to Ukraine as part of a peace settlement?
No!
3) If third country military forces were to be deployed to Ukraine as part of a peace arrangement, what would you consider to be the necessary size of such a European-led force?
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The purpose and point of the six questions the U.S. gave to the Europeans was to induce some realist thinking:
Applying such one will come to the conclusion that nothing but a long term peace agreement, which does not necessitate 'guarantees', makes any sense.
But they still did not get it.
It took the Europeans seven month of highly publicized discussion to finally acknowledge that there was no way for them to provide Ukraine with 'security guarantees'. The only realistic variant they could think of was to threaten Russia with a nuclear war which they can't but did wanted the U.S. to do. The U.S. wont do that. Neither Trump nor any other U.S. president will agree to risk New York over Kiev.
But the Europeans still do not want to make peace. Their new idea was to push the U.S. to put more sanctions on Russia:
The European Union is sending a delegation to Washington to ready new joint sanctions against Russia, European Council President António Costa said Friday.
"We are working with the United States and other like-minded partners to increase our pressure through further direct and secondary sanctions," Costa said at a press conference in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod, following a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Costa added "a European team is traveling to Washington, D.C. to work with our American friends" but did not reveal who would take part in the delegation.
The Trump administration is now copying the February idea of the catalog of question about security guarantees.
Trump is telling the Europeans "you jump first":
Donald J. Trump - @realDonaldTrump - Sep 12, 2025, 23:15 UTC
A LETTER SENT BY PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP TO ALL NATO NATIONS AND, THE WORLD: "I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia when all NATO Nations have agreed, and started, to do the same thing, and when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA. As you know, NATO'S commitment to WIN has been far less than 100%, and the purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia. Anyway, I am ready to"go"when you are. Just say when? I believe that this, plus NATO, as a group, placing 50% to 100% TARIFFS ON CHINA, to be fully withdrawn after the WAR with Russia and Ukraine is ended, will also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR. China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia, and these powerful Tariffs will break that grip. This is not TRUMP'S WAR (it would never have started if I was President!), it is Biden's and Zelenskyy's WAR. I am only here to help stop it, and save thousands of Russian and Ukrainian lives (7,118 lives lost last week, alone. CRAZY!). If NATO does as I say, the WAR will end quickly, and all of those lives will be saved! If not, you are just wasting my time, and the time, energy, and money of the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA."
Like with the catalog of questions about security guarantees Trump is trying to induce some realist thinking into the boneheaded European 'elite'.
Nearly every country in Europe is still consuming Russian oil. It is either bought directly from Russia or through Turkey or India. Europe can not put high tariffs on China or India. The responses from those countries would be devastating for Europe's economies.
There is no way to sanction Russia, directly or indirectly, into ending the war.
Trump knows this. It is why he is calling the Europeans bluff.
We can only hope that they will learn from it...
Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.