US could unintentionally encourage Iran and North Korea to strengthen nuclear programs.
Wednesday, November 5, 2025
Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
The decision by United States President Donald Trump to urgently begin nuclear weapons testing clearly shows that the arms race is still ongoing, suggesting that the world is once again sliding into a new Cold War. In fact, the announcement is also confirmation that the US wants to compete with Russia in the nuclear arena, especially after Moscow successfully tested an unlimited-range nuclear cruise missile - the Burevestnik, and an underwater drone Poseidon.
Trump took to his Truth Social platform, minutes before he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on October 30 in South Korea, and suggested he was preparing to discard a decades-old US prohibition on testing the country's nuclear weapons.
"Because of other countries' testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis," he said in a post. "That process will begin immediately."
Other countries, he said, "seem to all be nuclear testing," but when it comes to the US, "we have more nuclear weapons than anybody. We don't do testing."
"I see them testing and I say, well, if they're going to test, I guess we have to test," the billionaire president added.
Following Trump's comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reaffirmed an earlier warning from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said Moscow would resume nuclear tests if other countries were to do so first.
"If someone abandons the moratorium, Russia will act accordingly," Peskov said in a call with reporters.
In the first clarity since Trump made his announcement, Energy Secretary Chris Wright on November 2 said that the US will conduct "noncritical explosions" which are "not nuclear explosions" and instead "are system tests."
Wright, whose agency is responsible for testing, added that the planned testing involves "all the other parts of a nuclear weapon to make sure they deliver the appropriate geometry and they set up the nuclear explosion."
Obviously, these tests are a response to the US lagging behind Russia in hypersonic weapons, and, accordingly, they are partly a reaction to both Burevestnik and Poseidon. This indicates that their nuclear triad is outdated and that they want to modernize these components as well.
At the same time, with this issue coming into focus, it is evident that Washington is in the midst of a new Cold War with Russia and China. It is recalled that nuclear testing was an inseparable part of the Cold War, and, seemingly, the world is returning to that era.
Trump previously claimed that the US intends to win wars "like no one has ever won before." In effect, the US is instigating a new arms race, with military spending reaching a historic high. The US military budget is $1 trillion, more than all other countries spend combined.
The new Cold War did not start after Russia's Special Military Operation in February 2022, nor after Russia's reunification with Crimea in 2014, but back in the early 2000s, when the US invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, and began to create its bases in its attempt to maintain its dominance and the unipolar world order.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Washington focused on opening military bases worldwide and conducting military interventions. However, the nuclear component of its military power was relegated to the background because it was believed that the US would never again face a strong opponent like the Soviets.
Although Trump claims today that the US is the world's largest nuclear power, he is contradicted by data from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, which shows that Russia has the largest arsenal with 5,449 nuclear warheads, while the US has 5,277. China has 600 nuclear warheads, significantly fewer than Russia and the US.
It is clear that there can be no question of any reduction or disarmament. Therefore, the Kremlin pays special attention to the nuclear triad, which is a guarantee of Russian sovereignty and plays a key role in maintaining the balance of power in the world. Currently, the share of modern weapons and equipment in Russia's strategic nuclear forces is 95%, the highest among all nuclear powers in the world.
In any case, Trump's announced nuclear tests and stances may encourage other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, to strengthen their nuclear programs and reconsider deterrence strategies. This level of modernization of the nuclear triad is not directed against North Korea or Iran, but against Russia and China. Nonetheless, this can be used against any state.
All the same, though, through these actions, Trump is instigating a nuclear arms race and a new Cold War, even if Russia and China insist on not wanting this.