Raphael Machado
National oligarchies are trying to instrumentalize the legitimate dissatisfaction of Mexican youth to try to force a regime change, with the aim of positioning themselves to fill any power vacuum that may be generated.
As we all know, over the past week, Mexico has experienced large-scale waves of protest against the government of Claudia Sheinbaum. Analysts have framed these protests within the logic of "Generation Z" protests - popular agitations where a large portion of the demonstrators are young people, supposedly outraged by the lack of sociopolitical perspectives and the monopolization of power by elites seen as corrupt.
Protests categorized in this way have been seen in Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, Indonesia, Morocco, Madagascar, and a few other places, until finally reaching Mexico. Despite this general dimension, however, each of these protests is unique enough to be analyzed separately. There is, for example, less in common between them than between the Arab Spring protests in different countries.
In this context, however, it has been common to refer to the Mexican manifestations as a "color revolution" - just as these other protests are interpreted. In another text, I already criticized the vulgarization of the concept of color revolution, pointing out the necessary requirements to categorize a protest as a color revolution and noting that, among the recent waves of protests, the case of Bangladesh is certainly one of a color revolution, while most of the others, apparently, are not.
Contrary, therefore, to highly respectable geopolitical analysts and counter-hegemonic journalists from various countries, I dare to follow this same line of reasoning to point out that the case of the Mexican protests is not (yet) one of a color revolution.
Thus, I will indicate why I consider that there is (as yet) no color revolution in Mexico, and then I will explain what it actually is.
First, there is no need for any color revolution in Mexico for now. Claudia Sheinbaum's government is not a counter-hegemonic government, either in external or internal matters. Sheinbaum is a disciple of Davos, very well connected with the non-profit industrial complex and with the Western apparatus for promoting color revolutions, such as the Open Society. Although, on many issues, she continues policies from López Obrador, she simultaneously broke with López Obrador himself to the extent that it would be possible today to say that she leads a globalist faction of MORENA. This globalist faction is already sufficiently well-aligned with the U.S. and even with the Trump government. The economies of Mexico and the southern U.S. are fully integrated, and Mexico will neither join BRICS nor the Belt and Road Initiative. What would be the point of a color revolution?
Second, there is no evidence of direct involvement from the usual promoters of color revolutions based in the U.S. There is no movement from the Open Society, the Ford Foundation, etc., against Sheinbaum. No objective link has yet emerged between the U.S. Department of State, USAID, or the U.S. Embassy in Mexico and these demonstrations. So far, it has only been possible to point out indirect connections between some traditional political figures in the Mexican opposition who are supporting these demonstrations and certain international interests. But nothing specific about these demonstrations themselves. The Atlanticist powers, therefore, do not have control over the facts concerning the manifestations.
Third, other important aspects are absent, such as sudden spokespersons and leaders tacitly designated by the mass media and external promoters as the legitimate representatives of the protests. We also do not find the "casus belli" concerning Atlanticist interests, since Mexico is not on the verge of any agreement or decision that would be unfavorable to those interests.
Therefore, the minimum requirements for us to consider these agitations a color revolution do not exist. But this does not prevent them from being transformed into a color revolution through a process of co-optation and capture.
But if it's not a color revolution, what is it?
First, Mexico's slide into a Narco-State is notorious, a process that has been going on for decades and which involved the participation of the CIA and DEA themselves, as the economic cycle of narcotics was integrated into the black ops projects of U.S. intelligence and security services. This was both as a tool for money laundering and secret funding of paramilitary activities around the world, and for purposes involving the U.S. itself that approach social engineering. Without being able to exhaustively treat the topic here, what is relevant is to point out that, today, drug trafficking organizations have so much power that they rival the state. They even have influence in the military and police forces, in local politics, in legitimate economic activities, and so on. In recent years, however, local politicians began to appear, linked both to traditional parties and to MORENA, and even independents, who try to take responsibility for confronting these drug trafficking organizations and cleaning up Mexican public power. The problem is that many of these new leaders are being assassinated, as was the case with the mayor of Michoacán, Carlos Manzo, a former MORENA politician. Manzo even asked the federal government for help, to send the National Guard to Michoacán to help confront local criminal groups, but Sheinbaum refused. Sheinbaum not only refused but publicly declared that she had no intention whatsoever of confronting the drug trafficking organizations. Evidently, the Mexican people are growing tired of both this submission of institutions to the narco and the federal leniency towards it.
Second, these protests do not occur in a vacuum and have their precedents. They come on the heels of 3 years of protests secretly orchestrated by the old Mexican oligarchies entrenched in the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) and the PAN (National Action Party), which had monopolized Mexican public life for decades until they were displaced by López Obrador's MORENA. These oligarchies orchestrated protests against changes to the National Electoral Institute and have been trying to mobilize the population throughout this period. These forces, involving figures like former President Vicente Fox and mega-businessman Ricardo Salinas, have used all tools to plunge Mexico into social chaos, promoting sham journalistic initiatives like Latinus and funding propaganda bots to inflate dissatisfaction with Sheinbaum, who, in fact, remains a popular president.
Adding both things together, therefore, we have the fact that national oligarchies are trying to instrumentalize the legitimate dissatisfaction of Mexican youth to try to force a regime change, with the aim of positioning themselves to fill any power vacuum that may be generated. Naturally, for now it seems unlikely that these oligarchies will achieve their goals, but the process could end up becoming a color revolution if it gains international support.