"Whatever happens in Iran, the defeat of the West and its civilisation is inevitable. Trump cannot stop its implosion; he is accelerating it." The American empire is collapsing like the Soviet Union, says Emmanuel Todd. In 1976, the demographer predicted the fall of the communist superpower based on infant mortality data. Today, he sees demographic statistics as a sign of the decline of the United States. And he warns against a re-armed Germany.
Interview with EMMANUEL TODD, Die Weltwoche, 27 February 2026
The war in Ukraine concerns Germany, the French demographer, historian and best-selling author told Weltwoche magazine in the spring of 2023. Shortly afterwards, Emmanuel Todd devoted a book to this country, in which the nihilism of Western civilisation occupies an important place: 'The Defeat of the West', published in 2024. In the spring of 2025, another interview was published in Weltwoche magazine. Todd then declared: 'Russia has won the war'. This opinion is now shared by world-renowned experts such as American Colonel Douglas Macgregor.
As a young researcher, Todd made a name for himself in 1976 by predicting the collapse of the Soviet Union. He justified this prediction with the high infant mortality rate in the communist empire. Later, when he criticised the introduction of the euro, demanded by France in exchange for German reunification, he was in high demand for interviews in Germany. Todd attributed a 'German neurosis' to his country's elite. He predicted that the single currency would help Germany assert its political supremacy in Europe.
His book Après l'Empire, published in 2002, became an international bestseller. He gave us his third interview since the start of the war in Ukraine, in which he draws a parallel between the decline of America and the collapse of the Soviet Union. And he asks the following question: what will Germany do when the war is over?
Weltwoche: Mr Todd, the war in Ukraine is entering its fifth year. In hindsight, are there any aspects that you misjudged?
Emmanuel Todd: I always have scruples and doubts. The prediction was correct: the West lost this war long ago. If the Americans had won it, Joe Biden would have been re-elected. Donald Trump is the president of defeat. Today, we must add that the consequence of defeat is the decline of the West. This collapse of a civilisation - Western civilisation - can be compared to the end of communism and the Soviet Union. It is still difficult to get a clear picture of how it will evolve. Its most spectacular symptom is the loss of reality.
Weltwoche: When did you realise the scale of the war in Ukraine?
Todd: When I managed to determine the number of engineers in the United States and Russia. The American population is two and a half times larger than the Russian population, but the United States trains fewer engineers. John Mearsheimer, whom I admire, believes that Ukraine is of existential importance to Russia. This is undoubtedly true. But unlike Mearsheimer, I am convinced that Ukraine is even more important to the United States: defeat in Ukraine reveals the weakness of the American system. It has a completely different significance from the defeats in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. The United States loses, leaves chaos behind and withdraws. In Ukraine, they are fighting a war against their historical enemy since 1945. Losing it is unimaginable.
Weltwoche: Donald Trump wanted to end it in 24 hours.
Todd: That was his sincere intention. Trump's vulgarity and amorality are unbearable for a European bourgeois like me. But he also defends entirely reasonable causes. The MAGA project, 'Make America Great Again', is about representing the interests of the nation. After a year, Trump had to admit that, despite protectionism and high customs duties, reindustrialisation was not working. There is a shortage of engineers, technicians and skilled workers. The illiteracy rate among young people aged 16 to 24 has risen from 17% to 25% in the last ten years. America depends on imports; it cannot do without them. As the world's leading power, relocating industry to China was pure madness. Even in the agricultural sector, the trade balance is in deficit. Customs duties have become a threat to the dollar. It is the weapon of an empire that lives on credit from the labour of other countries. The disastrous state of American society makes it impossible to implement MAGA. It lacks the necessary economic and intellectual dynamism.
Weltwoche: And that is why Trump has to wage wars against his will?
Todd: That is his dilemma. He has been sucked into the vortex of American foreign policy over the last few decades. The United States was seeking to expand and strengthen its empire. Trump did not slow down this evolution, he accelerated it. Joe Biden has compensated for the decline of the empire with the war in Ukraine. Trump is multiplying theatres of operation. He has tried to measure his strength against that of China, which has brought him to his knees with its embargo on rare earths. He threatens Canada and Cuba. He wants Greenland and humiliates Europeans. In Venezuela, the imperialism of a dying empire has manifested itself in the form of kidnapping and looting. His customs policy is a form of blackmail. In almost every area, it has achieved the opposite of what it wanted.
Weltwoche: And all this because the United States can no longer win the war in Ukraine?
Todd: These are diversionary tactics. The result is that its enemies are forming alliances: Iran, Russia, China. Trump has not reduced the United States' military commitment, but has multiplied it spectacularly. With their war cries and hostility towards Russia, Europeans are partly responsible for this development.
Weltwoche: After the negotiations in Alaska, during which European heads of state were treated like schoolchildren by Trump, Emmanuel Macron called Putin an "ogre" and a "beast to be fed" in a frightening interview.
Todd: Trump is taking advantage of this. America - the Biden administration - is responsible for the war in Ukraine, but Trump has managed to portray himself as a moderate and peaceful negotiator. He is presented by the media as an omnipotent ruler of the world, who reorganises it according to his will and fantasies. And this at a time when America is suffering its first strategic failure in the face of Russia. Venezuela, Cuba, Greenland - these are just diversionary tactics. It's all about diverting attention from Ukraine to other theatres of operation. This is also the intention behind the negotiations. They only serve to buy time for all parties involved. The decision will be made on the battlefield, and Trump has realised that he cannot prevent Putin's victory. Ukraine is on the verge of a total collapse of its system, however tragic and sad that may be for the Ukrainians.
Weltwoche: Is Iran also a diversionary tactic?
Todd: Yes. For me, Israel is not an autonomous country that pushes the United States to intervene in the Middle East. Israel is a satellite of the United States. Just like Ukraine. Israel does what Trump allows it to do. When he wanted a ceasefire in Gaza, he got it immediately. It was Israel that asked him for permission to end the Twelve-Day War. Netanyahu had to realise that the enemy was capable of producing many more rockets than expected.
Weltwoche: You have described the war in Ukraine as the beginning of a third world war.
Todd: The war in Ukraine is the beginning of a world war. One of the reasons for the Russians' victory is the support they receive from China and India. The BRICS countries are siding with the Russians against the West.
Weltwoche: And now we will see a world war between the Americans and Russia and its allies, Iran, China and India?
Todd: Russia, China and Iran are taking a defensive stance. For now, it is an American attack on Tehran. No one knows what it will trigger. How will the regime, China and Russia react?
Weltwoche: But will they be allies against the United States in World War III?
Todd: During World War II, we had the Third Reich attacking everyone. Today, the attacks are coming from the United States. All the allies are authoritarian regimes threatened by the declining American empire.
Weltwoche: What is the role of Europeans ? In one of our previous conversations, you said that the Americans are actually waging war against Germany.
Todd: What we are currently experiencing normally only happens in science fiction novels. The Western media system has become an empire of lies, incapable of describing reality. Its axiom is as follows: Russia threatens Europe. I find this absurd. I think Putin will annex part of Ukraine to Russia. Then the Russians will end the war. The conquest of Europe is simply impossible, and Putin is not interested in doing so. In my book, I discuss American nihilism, the decline of churches and moral values in detail. Today, I realise that I underestimated European nihilism. Europe is no longer a union of equal states. It is dominated by Germany. I found Olaf Schulz's cautious policy reasonable. Friedrich Merz's election as chancellor changed everything. He pushed the United States to relaunch the war against Russia. The CDU is the party of the Americans, and Merz has fuelled the Germans' Russophobia. The Chancellor is creating a perverse synthesis between Russophobia and the economic crisis caused by the war. He wants to overcome the crisis by militarising industry. This is the new German doctrine for Europe. And the secret services are issuing warnings about a Putin attack on Germany.
Weltwoche: Merz wants the most powerful army in Europe. This brings back bad memories, and not only in France.
Todd: To believe that this rearmament is aimed exclusively at Russia is actually a naive mistake. For Russia, it is a serious threat; for the Americans, it is a blessing. I can only explain this madness by the crisis the EU is going through. It is at an impasse and has replaced its original ideals with the hostile image of Putin. The West is by no means on the path to regaining its lost unity. The return to nationalism is predominant in the United States and Europe. In Germany, the resurgence of national consciousness is less pronounced than in other EU member states: it has taken control of Europe. I must resort to science fiction once again: the war in Ukraine is over, Russia has achieved its goal. In this world without Russian threats, nations are returning and Germany is once again becoming a dominant and self-confident power with the strongest army on the continent. Who will be threatened then?
Weltwoche: As during the Second World War: all of Europe, including Russia, and in particular France, the hereditary enemy?
Todd: For Canada, it is not the Russians who pose a threat, but the United States. Yes, and for France it is Germany. French politicians lack historical awareness. Relations between France and Germany have improved because we French no longer have anything to fear from Germany.
Weltwoche: This was evident again during reunification, which France wanted to prevent.
Todd: There is cause for concern. The collapse of the West is accompanied by a return to brutality and hierarchisation: one submits to the strongest and attacks the weakest. That is what the Americans are doing to the Europeans, and the Germans have accepted this by electing Friedrich Merz. They need a scapegoat. For now, it is still Putin. But Franco-German relations are deteriorating.
Weltwoche: Does Macron's willingness to share nuclear firepower with Germany testify to a desire for submission?
Todd: Merz makes very unpleasant statements about France. The war in Ukraine is turning into a world conflict between the former colonies and the West that exploited them. And within a decaying West, the conflicts of the past are resurfacing. Whatever happens in Iran, the defeat of the West and its civilisation is inevitable. Trump cannot stop its implosion; he is accelerating it. The Chinese and Russians are arming the mullahs, and the Americans have had to recognise that one aircraft carrier was not enough. Not even two. The Tehran regime cannot give in, and Trump cannot give up on an attack, because he would really lose face after promising his help to the insurgents.
Weltwoche: He backtracked on Greenland.
Todd: It was just theatre; he won't start a war against Denmark. From Denmark, the NSA monitors all of Europe. Greenland is a secondary theatre of the end of the world.
Weltwoche: You compared it to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Todd: At the time, not a shot was fired; the Russians accepted the end of their empire with great dignity.
Weltwoche: Ukraine gained independence.
Todd: The Russians turned their backs on communism with great elegance. Their empire was not based on the exploitation of their satellites; they had tortured themselves with Stalinism. The period after the collapse was extremely difficult, especially since the Russians had centuries of totalitarian rule behind them. Compared to Russia, the United States and Europe are bad losers. This is particularly true of the Americans, whose history had been crowned with success until then.
Weltwoche: In World War III, do you see the Americans in the role of the Third Reich?
Todd: I am wary of comparisons with the 1930s. The situation is different. But of course there are similarities. For Trump, diplomacy consists of spreading lies. When he talks about negotiations, you can be sure there will be war. It was the same with Hitler.
Weltwoche: Trump has not yet started a war.
Todd: He has not sent ground troops because he does not have the power to do so: society does not accept deaths, and this is generally the case in the West. No one likes to wage war, not even Russia. Even Putin manages his human resources with caution; he has not dragged his population into total war. Trump will not send ground troops to Iran either. We are still in the phase of rhetoric and air strikes. The mullahs' regime has been weakened by the uprising. Intensive bombing could trigger a civil war. It could cause chaos and spark internal struggles. The war in Ukraine now seems to me to be a civil war triggered by the Americans. A regime change in Iran is not in their interest at all. The mullahs are a terrible regime, but the mosques are empty. A nationalist government supported by the population would not be much less hostile to the United States. As in the 1930s, we lack imagination today. The Shoah was possible because no one could imagine Auschwitz. Reality exceeds our imagination.
Weltwoche: You're probably right, and we should read more science fiction novels to understand the present. Politics is content to learn from the past.
Todd: Rather than the past, we should be interested in what might happen and what we cannot possibly imagine. The central question that haunts me is this: what is happening to the Germans ? Americans want to be Americans and Russians want to remain Russians. The AfD is not comparable to the Rassemblement National. It is a party whose aggressiveness is frightening. At the same time, the German elite is getting used to the idea of war. What will happen if the AfD and the CDU form an alliance ? Will German nationalism then meet German militarism ? Is Germany returning to being an authoritarian society because that corresponds to its temperament ? This is a question we need to think about today.
Weltwoche: Do you have a tentative answer?
Todd: All my wrong predictions were about Germany: because I mistakenly thought that Germans could be like the French. When Schröder and Chirac protested with Putin against the war in Iraq, I saw it as an encouraging rapprochement and thought that Paris should share its seat on the UN Security Council with Berlin. I saw Germany as the leader of a sovereign Europe. My hopes were dashed. Germany immediately began imposing its unilateral decisions without consulting its partners: from the nuclear phase-out to the reception of refugees. Germany is jointly responsible for the Maidan, it presented Ukraine with a choice: Russia or Europe. Even in my book on Ukraine, in which I harshly criticise Great Britain, I spare Germany: because I largely agreed with Olaf Scholz.
Weltwoche: Why can't Germans become French?
Todd: As a demographer, I was interested in the family structures of peasant society. They continue to influence political culture. In countries where brothers had equal rights, the concept of equality among men was able to take hold. This was the prerequisite for universalistic revolutions, such as those in France and Russia. Russia established communism, which applied to everyone. In Germany, revolution had no chance because brothers did not have equal rights. This explains its propensity for authoritarianism. In Germany, the idea of inequality between men and peoples prevails and, unlike Russia and China, a multipolar world order is unimaginable. This immediately raises the question of why France, with its tradition of equality, does not side with the Russians: because it submits to German hegemony. Macron's willingness to share the atomic bomb weakens national sovereignty. For Germany, only hierarchical relationships are possible. The Germans want to dominate Europe because that corresponds to their temperament. After all, they are once again the strongest power.
Weltwoche: Once a Nazi, always a Nazi ? You will be accused of systematic hostility towards Germany.
Todd: It's not the first time. My assessment is not a reproach, but an observation. I admire and recognise the superiority of the Germans in many cultural areas.
Weltwoche: You argue as an anthropologist. Is there a nostalgic desire in the German unconscious for victory over Russia, for revenge for the Second World War?
Todd: I wouldn't talk about revenge. After the war and after reunification, no one could have imagined how quickly Germany would rise to the challenges it faced. That's a compliment. This country is different, it has enormous potential. But of course the Germans know who defeated the Wehrmacht. The aggressive rhetoric of the Russians gives the impression that they have been deprived of their victory. The refusal to acknowledge the Russian victory is tantamount to denying the German defeat.
Weltwoche: After reunification, the fall of the Soviet Union was also presented as a victory for the West, and the Russians were denied recognition for freeing themselves from communism, something the Germans had failed to do with Hitler.
Todd: The defeat of 1945 is considered a thing of the past, as if it never existed, just like National Socialism.
Weltwoche: At the same time, the Nazi past is omnipresent as a German obsession, and the AfD is fought as if it were a matter of resisting the Nazis. At home against Hitler, in Europe against Putin.
Todd: Are Germans really that obsessed with Hitler ? If so, there is something in their subconscious that I have missed. And that would mean that the risks are even greater than I ever imagined. We are truly in a science fiction novel. The elites no longer have explanations or plans. They rely on the EU, which makes any decision impossible and has a distorted perception of reality. Germany dominates Europe, but this must not be said. We have a completely distorted view of the past, which guides our present, and we cannot imagine the future. And when you don't know where you're going, you can at least cling to Russophobia.
Weltwoche: Russophobia stemming from anti-fascism, with Putin in the role of Hitler. There are attempts to ban the AfD.
Todd: I don't know Germany well enough to comment on that. Sometimes I tell a joke, but it's not funny. I don't know, I'm not sure Yes, maybe that's it: Germany is giving free rein to its authoritarian temperament. The AfD is compared to the Rassemblement National, Marine Le Pen to Meloni and Putin, and Meloni to Trump. These comparisons are pointless. What all countries have in common is a return to the nation. Even the Germans want to go back to being German. This dynamic has infected all parties, SPD, CDU, AfD. The differences between post-national ideologies are blurring. In the United States, we are seeing a rapprochement between the neoconservatives, who supported war as a means of imposing democracy, and the Maga movement, which wanted to end it. In Germany, a merger between the CDU and the AfD is conceivable. And it is conceivable that the return to the authoritarian nation will this time present itself as a struggle for freedom and democracy.
Weltwoche: How do you assess developments in France, where politics has long been characterised by the fight against populists and neo-fascists and where the radicalisation of the left is raising fears of a civil war between 'anti-fascists' and 'fascists' ? Jean-Luc Mélenchon, of the La France insoumise party, has called next year's election to choose Macron's successor "the final battle".
Todd: This opposition is paralysing France. No party wants to abolish the euro or leave the EU. Only a radical uprising can end the political impotence. We need a movement that recognises our collective interests and leaves post-national ideologies behind. There is no sign of this on the horizon.
Weltwoche: Who will be the next president?
Todd: I don't know, I'm not a prophet. Even though I have that reputation.
Weltwoche: It was Osama bin Laden, the mastermind behind the attacks on the Twin Towers, who spread it around the world. While fleeing from the Americans at the beginning of the millennium, he cited you as a prophet: after the end of the Soviet Union, it would be the turn of the American empire to fall. Who will you vote for?
Todd: I have no idea.
Weltwoche: Dominique de Villepin, che, in qualità di ministro degli Affari esteri di Jacques Chirac, ha condotto la campagna contro l'attacco americano in Iraq?
Todd: È l'unico politico che può contare sulla mia simpatia, almeno.
Weltwoche: Voleva raccontare una barzelletta.
Todd: È la storia di un campo di concentramento per ebrei, che vengono imprigionati e sterminati perché antisemiti.
Weltwoche: Questa idea non mi sembra affatto irrealistica, vista la confusione mentale e la retorica dominante che lei descrive. Ma restiamo nel campo della fantascienza: non sarà la Russia ad essere attaccata dall'"esercito più potente d'Europa", ma la Francia?
Todd: No, non credo, almeno nel medio termine. La Germania non ne è capace, noi abbiamo la bomba atomica. I giornalisti e i politici hanno dimenticato che De Gaulle l'ha costruita per proteggerci dai tedeschi. Se continuano ad accanirsi contro la Russia, potrebbero costringere Putin a usare armi nucleari tattiche. Posso solo sperare che i missili russi non mirino alla Dassault, ma alle fabbriche della Rheinmetall.
Original article: lafionda.org