March 18, 2026
On Monday, Peter appeared on Global Gambit with host Pyotr Kurzin to discuss the latest in geopolitics. Peter walks through the market and geopolitical fallout from the recent conflict in Iran and explains why the immediate market moves are misleading. He ties the spike in inflation not just to oil but to larger fiscal choices-bigger deficits, more money printing, and a housing market he thinks is on the brink of a severe correction-and makes the case that gold remains the clearest hedge.
First, Peter says the initial market reaction is not the whole story. He points out that the dollar and gold have been playing tug-of-war since the conflict began and that current price action hides deeper risks for stocks and real assets alike:
I think the initial reaction to what's happening, I think, is wrong. I think that, you know, the dollar has gotten a bit of a bid, although not today, but the dollar has strengthened gold, which had been making record highs prior to the conflict. When the conflict broke out, gold actually pulled back. And now it's hanging out around 5,000, which I think is the support level. And the stock market, though it's gone down, hasn't gone down very much.
He warns that what is actually strengthening right now is inflation, and that this is about fiscal policy more than just short-term commodity moves. Peter argues that war spending and emergency measures will widen deficits, forcing more central-bank and Treasury support that feeds price increases across the economy:
The only thing strong is inflation. And now it's going to get a lot worse, not because oil prices are rising, which they will, but because we're going to have bigger deficits and more money printing to fund the war and to prop up the economy and to prop up the housing market, which is on the verge of a major collapse. Housing is the most unaffordable it's ever been. Home prices in the U.S. should drop at least 30%, maybe more nationwide. That's going to create a crisis in and of itself, because housing is the basis of a lot of debt.
He reminds listeners that de-dollarization was already underway before the recent knee-jerk flight back to the dollar. Peter expects the trend away from U.S. Treasuries to resume and to show up in rising gold prices when it does:
We know that because we've already experienced it. And I think the world was already in the process of de-dollarizing. And I think that what's happened recently has slowed the process down a bit with this knee-jerk move into the dollar. But I think in short order, the trend out of the dollar, out of U.S. Treasuries is going to resume. And that's when you're going to see new highs in gold.
Given all this, Peter is blunt about what he sees as the simplest, most durable alternative: gold. He explains that whether nations trade directly in gold or create currencies anchored to gold, the metal is poised to reassert itself as the real measure of value:
Gold. Gold is the alternative. In fact, gold is where the world seems to be headed. They're talking about trading either gold directly or trading in a currency, whether it's a digital currency or, you know, some kind of new currency. But ultimately anchored to gold, that gold is going to be what gives value to the currency.
Finally, Peter touches on political leadership and missed opportunities, saying he would have advised different priorities if given the chance. He thinks promises to shrink government and curb spending were squandered, leaving the U.S. less prepared for the kinds of shocks now unfolding:
I wish I was able to advise Trump because there's a lot I'd like to advise him on. And I think he's squandered an opportunity. He had a mandate to do a lot of things. And it would have been great if he did those things. You know, he talked about, you know, shrinking government and, you know, in getting, you know, abolishing all this spending and balancing the budget and making America great again. I'm all for those things.
This article was originally published on SchiffGold.com.