Pepe Escobar
This was always about Civilization.
"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again." History will register it with a gaze as pitiless as the Sun. An astonishing barbarian imprimatur, courtesy of the President of the United States, via a social media post.
In a nutshell, this was a trashy "civilization" that gave the world the Big Mac threatening to wipe out an ancient civilization that gave the world algebra; influenced art, science, governance in unparalleled ways; produced stars from Cyrus the Great to Avicenna, from Omar Khayyam to poet supreme Jalaladdin Rumi; developed serial, sublime gardens, carpets, architectural wonders and philosophical and ethical frameworks.
Crucially, there was not a single peep about this Barbaria outburst from the political leadership of the entire "civilized" collective West, not even feigning outrage, once again proving their absolute, irreversible moral and political bankruptcy.
Iranians answered Barbaria in kind. Over 14 million people registered to form human walls around their power stations all across the nation, simultaneously protecting their livelihood and confronting head on the firepower of the Epstein Syndicate.
As a hair-raising cliffhanger approached, the Baboon of Barbaria pivoted into - what else - TACO: the LEGO guys immortalized it.
There's absolutely no way that Pakistan could have offered "guarantees" to Iran that a ceasefire was the way for the war to eventually end. As confirmed by diplomatic sources, what really happened is that Beijing, at the 11th moment, placed itself as the guarantor, assuring Tehran that the US would accept at least some of Iran's demands included in its 10-point plan.
That was further confirmed by Iranian ambassador to China, Abdolreza Rhamani Fazili. The negotiations start this Friday in Islamabad.
POTUS, the Drooling Baboon of Barbaria, confronted with the inevitable, dire consequences of his own strategic blunder, used Pakistan for his off-ramp. That was confirmed by another epic blunder by the Pakistani Prime Minister himself: he forgot to remove the header of the tweet/X post drafted by the White House for him to publish.
The current Pakistani regime - de facto led by Field Marshall Asim Munir, who has Trump on speed dial - may have profited, and will continue to geopolitically profit, from a unique status: a Muslim nuclear nation with a significant Shi'ite minority; good relations with the GCC; neighbor of Iran, enjoying good relations; signed a defense pact with Saudi Arabia; a strategic partner of China; no US bases on its soil.
But Islamabad was always a mere go-between, never the architect of any "mediation". Whatever obfuscation coming from the White House, it was China that had to clinch the lineaments of a possible détente.
The Epstein Syndicate begs for a break
We had arrived to a point where the death cult in West Asia was being crushed simultaneously by Iran and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; no matter the avalanche of spin, their cries begging for help played a significant part into Trump's pivoting to a ceasefire.
The Epstein Syndicate as a whole begged for it. Nothing to do with geopolitics, but with operational hell: the Empire of Chaos has run out of military resources.
The ultimate give away was when the USS Tripoli retreated - under fire - to the depths of the southern Indian Ocean, complete with its 2,500 Marines on board. That meant the US Navy out of the war theater - except for subs with Tomahawks, roughly half of which go off-target with staggering (non)precision.
And the problems are far from over. Financial hell looms, whatever is decided in Islamabad and beyond, with $10 trillion in Treasuries to rollover in 2026. And the petrodollar is fast on the way to the dustbin of History.
Enter, once again, the demented death cult.
No one should ever forget. The Epstein Syndicate is non-agreement capable. And the death cult doesn't do ceasefires: it does at best loopholes that allow it to keep killing everyone in sight.
The writing is already on the wall. If the death cult blows up the ceasefire - which is already the case - Iran and Hezbollah will counterpunch, massively, without attacking American assets.
Still, it's way too early to affirm that the Baboon of Barbaria lost his war under every possible metric: moral; legal; political; economic; strategic.
After all, the Empire of Chaos will always be, intrinsically, non-agreement capable, especially when the track record tells of two attacks on Iran back to back during diplomatic negotiations, killing everyone from Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to scores of possible negotiators.
The Big Picture song remains the same (sing it!): this is a war till the end against the Top Three proponents of a multipolar world, Iran, China and Russia.
China's power play, plus a few established facts
Before the ceasefire, China was getting 1.2 million barrels of Iranian oil a day, essentially via 26 ghost fleet tankers with their transponders in the dark, with payment settled in the Strait of Hormuz toll booth in yuan through CIPS. All that was bypassing SWIFT, sanctions, the petrollar, and Western insurance.
Talk about a new, alternative payment settlement system de facto implemented in the most crucial chokepoint on the planet.
This complex shadow energy architecture remains unaffected under the ceasefire - assuming it holds. But the key point is that China gets an extra breather: the ominous threat to finish off with every export of Iranian oil, post the Barbaria-declared Power Plant Day cliffhanger, seems to have disappeared. That explains the rationale behind China's last minute guarantee to Iran.
Now compare it with the Empire of Chaos's avowed "goals": provoke regime change; get the enriched uranium; destroy the missile program; destroy Iran's ability to project power. They all turned into an epic strategic blunder, culminating with the new status of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran and Oman will coordinate the toll booth on every ship crossing the Strait during the ceasefire - and certainly beyond, in a detailed juridical framework. American ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz after paying their toll in yuan - there's hardly anything more poetically intoxicating, in an Irony of History sense.
Still, it's clear the Empire of Chaos is playing for time - even as Iran retains the initiative. This is the key take away from the Supreme National Security Council in Iran:
"It has been decided at the highest level that Iran will conduct two weeks of negotiations in Islamabad based solely on these principles [the Iranian 10-points]. This does not mean the war is over; Iran will only accept the end of the war once these principles are confirmed in detail."
Let's briefly review the 10 points - which, in theory, were "accepted" by Trump:
- Commitment to non-aggression;
- Preservation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz;
- Agreement on uranium enrichment;
- Cancellation of all primary sanctions;
- Cancellation of all secondary sanctions;
- Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions;
- Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions;
- Payment of compensation to Iran;
- Withdrawal of American combat forces from the region;
- Cessation of war on all fronts, including the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
There's no way Iran will compromise on nearly all of these points. Payment of compensation might be metastasized into income from the Strait of Hormuz toll booth. But sanctions relief is not gonna happen; the US Congress will never allow it. Guarantee by the US they will not attack Iran again does not even qualify as a joke. Moreover, the Empire of Chaos simply cannot guarantee anything for Gaza or Lebanon.
Still, that is an extremely risky play for Iran, and a huge test for China as the major guarantor. Iran has suffered horrendous damages - especially in its petrochemical industry. Even with a lot of Chinese investment, it will take years to recover.
The Three Stooges may go to Islamabad this Friday. Curly: Vance. Shifty: Witkoff. Mo: Kushner. But Iran - via FM Araghchi - will only seriously talk to one of them: Curly.
So Civilization survives - for now. A few facts too. Fact One: the US is not a superpower anymore. Fact Two: Iran is back as one of the world's top powers. Fact Three: Most of the gutless Gulf petro-monarchies will end up kicking out US military bases for good. Fact Four: Qatar and Oman will work out a security arrangement with Iran.
The main imperative remains - and that concerns the whole planet: how to find a cure for that cancer in West Asia.\