Martin Jay
It's entirely possible that Israel organised the entire thing without even the knowledge of the King, Martin Jay writes.
There are a great deal of conspiracy theories floating around since the extraordinary events in recent days in northern Morocco, where an estimated 50,000 of its citizens attempted to place themselves in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. In a country where the press are heavily controlled and free-spirited citizen journalism is assiduously discouraged, it's hardly surprising there is speculation - given how in the dark the government operates most of the time. Yet few, if any Moroccans, believe the government narrative that the entire thing developed an energy of its own on social media platforms and that the state itself was taken by surprise. True, a lot of how quickly the information spread was due to social media platforms, but there are too many oddities which can't be ignored that point the finger at the government - or whoever is running Morocco - for organising the huge mobilisation. Firstly, the number of trucks full to the brim of young men who drove all the way to the border and were directed by police and gendarmerie; secondly, the more recent scenes of hundreds of these young men at bus and train stations all over the country on their way home, where clearly their transportation has been paid for by someone; and of course, lastly but not least, the fact that Moroccan police on the Moroccan side of the border made no effort at all - not even a token effort - to stop people from going around the fence or into the water. In fact, many of those who made the journey have already told media that they were actually directed and encouraged to "go to Spain" by those same police officers.
Moroccans know only too well what is happening. They remember the few times before when thousands of African migrants also magically all turned up at the border with Ceuta and Melilla and also remarkably found on that particular day no Moroccan police officers and so scaled the fence. On at least two occasions in recent years, this stunt has been used by Rabat to indicate to Madrid how angry and displeased it is about Spain's actions over Algeria, Western Sahara or other regional policies.
But those days were before 2022, when relations with Spain were far from ideal. These days, since Madrid backed Morocco's sovereignty bid for Western Sahara, relations - until just the other day - were as best as they could get. Almost.
It's important to remember how easily good relations with Spain could turn sour, and that in recent weeks Madrid's rapprochement with Algeria and moves afoot in the Spanish parliament to give the indigenous people of Western Sahara Spanish passports could ruin everything that has been achieved overnight. Why would Rabat throw away a relationship so important to it, unless there is something else at play which analysts and journalists alike are missing ? Is there another dimension to the Ceuta story which we are entirely missing?
According to the Iranians, Israel had a hand in what happened. Tehran believes that the Moroccans have been led down the garden path by primarily Israel and then Trump, and some recent events suggest there could be some truth in their assertion.
There is an obvious question here to be asked, which no Western journalists have so far identified. Trump and Netanyahu both have Spain in their crosshairs and desperately want to make the country a pariah state, cutting off U.S. aid and even having Madrid ousted as a NATO member. Of course, some of this is unrealistic and far-fetched, but it is rare that Trump and Bibi see eye to eye on the Iran war - when it comes to Spain and Morocco, there is clarity. It is clear that Israel and the U.S. are trying to stir trouble up, and the only real way to do that quickly and effectively, they see, is to destroy this relationship between Rabat and Madrid. Bringing Algeria in from the cold, for Spain, might have blown a fuse in Rabat with the country's ruling elite called the Makhzen, which could explain quite a few things. Add to that $40 million USD which the Trump administration is reported to have put aside for Rabat, while we begin to see Melilla and Ceuta becoming Moroccan territory in Congress reports (the most recent one being a State Department budget report just signed off by the House), and a picture emerges which puts the entire Ceuta story into context. The geopolitics starts to make sense. "When two neighbouring countries fight each other, just know the USA visited one," Nelson Mandela once said, and this is the story now of Morocco and Spain.
The Ceuta "invasion", many believe, was merely a stunt to derail the good relations which both countries have enjoyed until now. And it will probably work. If Madrid believes that the U.S. and Israel are goading Rabat on, then clearly Sanchez and his closest advisors will tone down the relationship with Morocco - which in fact is already happening, when one Spanish minister told a journalist "it is clear what is happening", hinting that Madrid knows who is behind the move and what the objectives were. If Israel has bedazzled the palace in Rabat with the dream of these enclaves becoming Moroccan, then the biggest winners by far are Israel - which is how analysts should frame their take. If relations turn sour between Rabat and Madrid and tensions start to mount over these enclaves, could the U.S. and Israel send warships there to blockade them, as part of a security measure to support its ally, Morocco ? Could that even be the basis to send in Moroccan troops to take them over completely ? Sounds far-fetched, but there are similarities with what happened after 1975, when the Spanish abandoned Western Sahara and the Moroccan king at that time sent in thousands of Moroccans into the territory to legitimise its claim, assisted with military aid - we shouldn't forget - from the U.S. The 'Green March' is celebrated each year with its own anniversary. In those days, U.S. involvement only enhanced America's military spending but didn't really offer the U.S. anything beyond that. Today, for Morocco to make moves on Melilla and Ceuta comes with a huge payback for Israel and the Trump administration, in that it would give the victors a massive annexation of international waters around the Straits of Gibraltar - effectively handing over the straits to Morocco, Israel, the U.S. and UK (Gibraltar). Under such a scenario, Trump would feel emboldened, as he and Bibi could decide which countries enter the Mediterranean and who pays what tariffs, etc. This new arrangement would give Trump exactly what he needs right now - leverage - while presenting on a plate to Israel a decisive blow which it can claim credit for by dealing with the so-called threat from Spain. It would effectively set up Israel as a regional player and breathe new life into the 'Greater Israel' project, while giving the King of Morocco the prize of his father's dream: sovereignty over these two colonial anachronisms. Everyone's a winner. Trump and Bibi have so much to gain by destroying Rabat's good relations with Madrid that it's hardly surprising the Ceuta "invasion" didn't come earlier. And isn't it funny that the frequency of how many times Trump announces his undivided support for Rabat's claim over Western Sahara seems to be increasing ? It's childish thinking, but is he doing this to try to draw attention to other EU "partners" who haven't done so for a while?
If you think it's a conspiracy theory that Israel and the U.S. had a hand in the Ceuta stunt, then you probably think Israel had nothing to do with 9/11, or the assassination of JFK. It's entirely possible that Israel organised the entire thing without even the knowledge of the King, who is distancing himself more and more recently from public duties. Conspiracy theories, remarkably, often have a habit of turning out to be true - but the idea that Ceuta was not organised and just came about randomly and organically is preposterous. Watch Madrid's next move and how Rabat reacts.