Martin Jay
Only 24 hours in, and Iran is looking like the player who has a salient military strategy, while holes start to appear in Trump's.
Already, only 24 hours in, and Iran is looking like the player who has a salient military strategy, while holes start to appear in Trump's. And Tehran hasn't even hit the U.S. with its knockout blow: oil.
Early on Sunday morning, it was confirmed that Iran's Supreme Leader had been killed by U.S./Israeli airstrikes, which no doubt will be seen by Trump and Netanyahu as a significant victory in their erroneous goal of regime change. But was it really one to chalk up ? Reports from Iran indicate that he will be replaced almost immediately by his son, who had already been playing a key role in the country's leadership anyway and whose appointment may well be a significantly positive step forward for the country, as many Iranians, while wanting reforms in their country, know only too well that the regime change notion is a trap set by Israel which they reject.
Iran has already scored a number of victories in a mere 24 hours, and their readiness this time was evident which, no matter how you look at the conflict, was certainly a consequence of Trump's earlier actions in June, when he bombed Iran's nuclear facilities with the agreement of Iran's leaders.
No such cosy deal exists today. The Iranians have learned the hard way that Trump is not to be trusted and is not even in control of these decisions. What we are witnessing now is the start of a protracted war which will evolve on several fronts concurrently, with the Iranians in no particular hurry to proceed at a rapid pace. Their significant strikes on a U.S. naval base plus one naval ship is a taste of Iran's ballistic missile capability which is starting to rain down on Israel itself.
The Supreme Leader's death actually was not a great victory, given that he made no real effort to go into hiding but was killed in his office. By contrast, Benjamin Netanyahu escaped from Israel and ended up being protected by the country which pulled off the Holocaust. And so Bibi can slowly watch the disintegration of his own country while the region deals with a new reality: oil.
Oil will be a critical, decisive factor in how long Israel and the U.S. can continue with the war, as Iran lost no time in shutting off the Straits of Hormuz, while America's fleet of ships just sat and watched. This may well be one area where Trump has seriously underestimated the consequences, as energy analysts are already predicting the climb of crude to close to $120 USD in the coming weeks. The choking of one of the most critical channels which provides 20 percent of the world's oil supply is only part of the horror story, though, that Iran has in store for Trump and Bibi. Warned that they would be hit - or at least their U.S. military bases would be legitimate targets - GCC countries have responded in a way which will please Israel and the U.S.: Saudi Arabia has said they will both attack Iran soon, with Qatar and the UAE likely to join.
Yet such a strategy would be a colossal error of judgment and a spectacular miscalculation which will accelerate the war in Iran's favour and force the U.S. and Israel to capitulate as Tehran strikes the Achilles heel of the whole operation. Iran can easily destroy the entire oil infrastructure of these GCC countries in a matter of hours, which would not only be a knockout blow to those countries' economies but will have a considerable impact on world oil prices, for one strengthening Russia. For the moment, Iran doesn't need to go this far, but if GCC countries really go ahead with their threat, it will have little choice.
Another critical area of misjudgement is the logistics of U.S. battleships operating inside the Straits of Hormuz. The straits have already been closed, and any pretensions that U.S. military planners had of taking on Iran in this ocean have been dashed by its successful destruction of the U.S. Naval base in Bahrain, which of course is played down by U.S. media whose low IQ "journalists" make themselves look even more stupid by asking Iran's foreign minister why Iran is bombing U.S. bases. The U.S. naval base in Bahrain was a critical supply port for U.S. battleships which carry around 90 missiles on board. The destroyers which are now trapped inside the Straits of Hormuz can't now reload if they deplete those missiles. The other ships which are on the other side of the blockade now can only restock at the U.S. base of Diego Garcia, which is three days away. To say this is a major blow to the whole operation is an understatement. It is a blunder of extraordinarily poor planning and a stroke of military genius by Iran to hit the U.S. naval base in Bahrain on day one, and it explains why the intense fury of the June retaliation last year has not been replicated. Iran is confident that its planning will defeat the enemy as it has a number of aces to play, and so its response is more measured and less frenetic. Iran has been planning this war for years, and the attack last year by Trump has just focused their minds and honed their military strategy to the point where even after 24 hours, they are looking like the victors who have a real strategy which is paying off, rather than their enemies who are dazed and confused. Is it really any wonder that sailors on the USS Gerald Ford sabotaged the toilet system on board by blocking it with T-shirts, so as to delay its voyage to the Gulf?