Finian Cunningham
Things could get a lot hotter in the Middle East and Europe.
Trump's Operation Epic Fury is fast becoming "Operation Epic FAFO" - that is, a "fuck around and find out" situation. Ironically, this is the vulgar phrase that the foul-mouthed president has previously used to warn others not to mess with him.
The illegal war he launched against Iran, along with Israel, is not delivering the dramatic victory he foolishly expected. Trump has unleashed mayhem with ruinous global consequences, not least of all a crashing U.S. economy and a political backlash from hell. Iran has cut off the Persian Gulf as a vital oil supply, sending the global economy and the petrodollar system into a nosedive. And the former reality TV and real estate mogul has his dubious assets in a vice.
Trump's gradual realization of his dilemma is hilarious. His boasts about victory over Iran are now replaced with appeals to other nations to send naval forces to open up the Gulf for oil tankers. If Trump has "decimated" Iran's military, then why aren't U.S. warships breaking the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz?
Only last week, the American president was mocking allies like Britain, saying he didn't need their help to take down Iran. Now, Trump is pleading with NATO nations to send forces to the Gulf. With trademark transactional threats, he said the "future is not good for NATO" if the alliance doesn't join his criminal war against Iran.
Laughably, Trump is even trying to pressure China to send warships to break Iran's siege of the Gulf. The stupidity of this president and his "no mercy" War Secretary, Pete Hegseth, is awesome. They started a war over which they have no control, and to reverse course, they are trying to get others to bail them out.
Trump is facing economic and political disaster from his own criminal recklessness.
This could, however, rebound badly in a way that escalates the NATO proxy war against Russia.
Trump is desperately reaching out to Britain, France, Germany, and other NATO states to send reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. The Europeans are wary of becoming involved in a worsening conflict in the Middle East, as are other American allies, Japan, South Korea and Australia. All of them are leery about answering Trump's call to send warships to open up the Strait of Hormuz.
But this is where the anti-Russian European NATO hawks could exploit Trump's mess against Iran to refocus Washington's involvement in Ukraine.
The Europeans have been critical of Trump for seemingly abandoning the proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. Their peevishness is palpable as they feel exposed in a losing situation with Russia. Trump views that conflict as a dead-end that he wants to wrap up. Not for any principled reason about peace, but simply because the proxy war has been a drain on U.S. money and military resources. To that end, Trump is trying to get Ukraine to make concessions for a peace deal with Russia, and he has shown frustration with the Kiev regime of Vladimir Zelensky.
The Kiev regime has procrastinated on diplomacy largely because the Europeans have bolstered Zelensky with their continuing political, financial, and military support - albeit not enough to win the conflict without American involvement. For various reasons, such as Russophobia and political investment in the project to confront Moscow, the European political class wants to continue the proxy war against Russia. They can't afford to give up on a bogus narrative of defending Ukraine and Europe from Russian aggression.
This has led to obvious tensions with Trump over his perceived lack of commitment to Ukraine. Britain, France, and Germany are insisting that the Trump administration keep the pressure on Russia over Ukraine.
Given Trump's growing predicament in the cascading conflict with Iran, this is how the Europeans could find some leverage on Trump. To bail him out of his epic screwup in the Middle East, the British, French, and Germans could send warships, drones, and minesweepers to the Persian Gulf to try to open up the oil route. In all likelihood, the Europeans will not be able to do anything to break Iran's formidable siege.
Nevertheless, Trump's political crisis is becoming so acute over his Gulf debacle that he will perceive wider NATO involvement in the Gulf as some form of escape from woe and meltdown of his ego.
A few token warships from Europe will hardly extricate Trump and may even exacerbate the war in the Middle East with greater global economic repercussions.
But in giving Trump a helping hand, the Europeans will insist on the United States getting back on board with the proxy war against Russia.
It is notable that the British media are making a determined effort to conflate Russia with Iran. In recent days, all British media outlets have been running front-page headlines claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin is helping Iran to target U.S. and British military bases. The reports are suspiciously concerted with identically worded claims about "Putin's hidden hand" allegedly directing Iranian missiles and drones.
This indicates a European NATO agenda to link Trump's war on Iran with the proxy war in Ukraine against Russia. London and the other European capitals are desperate to get Washington back on the project to strategically defeat Russia. The Europeans are so invested in that geopolitical objective that they could risk sending forces to the Persian Gulf to appease Trump and his FAFO predicament - on the condition that the United States ditches its half-baked diplomacy in Ukraine and gets back up to speed with the proxy war program against Russia.
Things could get a lot hotter in the Middle East and Europe.