Martin Jay
Without a European intervention, Trump's next plan will be even more radical than the Iran war itself.
The only partners in the world who could help Trump out of this hole he has dug himself into are the Europeans. Without their intervention, Trump's next plan will be even more radical than the Iran war itself.
With the midterm elections in the U.S. just months away, many are asking: are we witnessing the downfall of Donald Trump ? The main criteria for many Americans is always what they are paying at the supermarket, the gas pumps and utilities. Add to that how secure they feel in their (blue-collar) jobs, and things are not looking so good for Trump. His own MAGA base is feeling as though it's almost no longer there, and so the very real possibility of him losing both houses, which would result in the Democrats impeaching him immediately in the second half of his second term, is certain. It's a bleak outlook that even he must be thinking about now, as in the last few days we have seen a new look to Trump in press conferences: desperation.
Trump is desperate to get out of Iran, as every day which passes makes his decision to go to war with Tehran foolish, reckless and entirely at odds with serving America's interests. Each day that passes hammers nail after nail into his coffin as Americans are realizing that there is a huge chasm between the narrative that he is offering to journalists and the reality of what just happened in Iran.
As each day passes, it becomes clearer and clearer that Iran is winning the war. In many ways, some analysts say that Iran has already won, based simply on the fact that they now control the Straits of Hormuz, which is projecting the country as a regional power and one that can control global energy prices, even to the point where the days of oil in the region being traded in so-called 'petrodollars' are numbered.
Are there any realistic circumstances where America and its allies could take control back ? Nope. And yet this hasn't stopped Trump from begging EU countries to help with a naval armada to do just that, but none are taking him up on the idea. His first idea of starting a war with Iran was idiotic and has left many EU leaders shocked at Trump's stupidity, but jumping out of the frying pan into the fire and supporting the second idea would be like trying to fight a fire with gasoline. EU leaders, who may be deluded about their capability in Ukraine, are not ready for the suicide pill of Trump's war in Iran, and so the Straits of Hormuz are now lost to Iran, possibly for ever.
Tick tock. Each day that passes, Trump can hear the nail being hit into the coffin. Each day is like a torture when he wakes up and realises that he has made the greatest error of judgment that any U.S. president has made in history, and that America has lost the Middle East. In terms of U.S. hegemony starting to fade, it is now crumbling at an alarming speed. For GCC countries to now start looking for military procurement around the world, as the special relationship they had with the U.S. turns out to be a scam, is a wake-up call that the sky-scraping pillars of America's power around the world are starting to fall onto one another. The domino effect is what we are witnessing as a U.S. president heads towards midterm elections and just about everything he promised his voters to be elected in the first place transpires to have not only not happened, but is in fact much worse than the day when Trump took office. Trump is literally screwing blue-collar workers in the U.S. who put him in office.
Traditionally, it is often the case that American presidents turn to foreign policy to stretch their wings and define themselves as leaders, when domestic policies are so much harder to work on given the restraints of the U.S. political system. In Trump's case, this has been a disaster and will almost certainly evict him from office if he doesn't come up with a quick fix in the Middle East.
The real problem for Trump is that the very people on the global stage who could come to his rescue - the Europeans and NATO - he has been abusing from the very first day in office. Hitting EU countries with tariffs, as well as Japan, and in particular taking every opportunity to mock those leaders (France and the UK) in front of the cameras was a move which has backfired. When you prove to yourself hands down that you are worse than hopeless at international politics, and the sheer weight of U.S. hegemony can't carry you through it (as it could with previous leaders who have made blunders like Nixon or Reagan), then the smartest thing to do would be to turn to old Europe. The EU played a huge role in getting a nuclear deal out of Iran in 2015, as Tehran's leaders gave Brussels more kudos than it deserved, so Trump really should be working on those leaders now.
The real sticking point is that even if Macron, Starmer or Merz were to put their heads together and thrash out a solution to take the heat off Brent Crude prices heading towards $150 USD a barrel, there is almost no political will to go there, simply because they cannot trust Trump. He has made a career out of cheating partners and not keeping his word, and the news that the key players in the Venezuela kidnapping - close aides of Maduro - were promised huge sums of money for their assistance in the kidnapping of the Venezuelan leader, but were not paid, should not come as a surprise. Trump is someone who is destined to make deals but not keep his word, and EU leaders know this only too well. He is learning now how isolated he is as U.S. president and is resorting to practically begging EU countries and Japan for help. He is so desperate that he has even asked China for help with providing protection to vessels entering the straits.
Who will help Trump now out of this bear trap which has impaled him ? Isolated, Trump is more dangerous than ever, and so it would be wise for the EU to at least reach out and try to work with him, but they don't have the dynamic leaders who can find a way out of this jungle. All on his own, Trump is more dangerous than ever, and it is likely that his crackpot idea of the war with Iran will be eclipsed by a second idea which is even madder than the first: a nuclear option. Certainly the Israelis will already be ahead of him on this, but it is here where EU leaders should be talking to him and assuring him that this is not an option. More realistically, Trump will figure that insurrection back home by angry voters can be turned into a state of emergency which he can call a 'war', and midterms can be cancelled. If the Iran crisis is still going on, he can also turn that threat on U.S. allies as a state of war for America, and he will follow the Zelensky model of being a puppet dictator clinging onto power and using a phony war as the basis of staying in office.