By Larry C. Johnson
Sonar21
June 16, 2026
Well, when news broke that Israel had bombed the southern suburb of Beirut on Sunday afternoon, the Iranians started gearing up for promised retaliation only to be dissuaded by a Donald Trump bribe. Iran and the US reportedly were closing in on an agreement based on Iran's 14-point plan when the Israeli strike in Lebanon threw everything into chaos. Iran quickly started ramping up for a renewed missile strike on Israel, but Donald Trump rump reportedly offered Iran financial incentives to not attack Israel.
Iranian media outlet Mehr reported that a 14-point memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran calls for the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during a 60-day negotiation period, with half of that - $12 billion - required to be made available to Iran before negotiations even begin. The MOU also reportedly includes immediate and permanent cessation of war on all fronts including Lebanon, a US commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs, lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days, and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian arrangements.
Trump essentially offer Iran a bribe to not attack Israel. Hedeclared on Truth Social that the US deal with Iran was "now complete," authorizing the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate removal of the US.naval blockade, instead of waiting 30 days. He also agreed that Iran could receive the $12 billion as soon as the ceasefire agreement was signed on Friday.
With that change, the Supreme National Security Council of Iran confirmed the achievement of an agreement between the United States and Iran:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran, under the leadership of its martyred leader, has completed its success over the American-Zionist enemy and, under the guidance of the Supreme Leader of the system (may God protect him), with the support of the entire nation and the diligent efforts of Islam's warriors, after a difficult and intensive several months of negotiations and based on the resolution of the Supreme National Security Council, finalized the text of the Memorandum of Understanding regarding negotiations to end the war (negotiations in Islamabad) between Iran and the United States on the evening of June 14.
According to the agreements reached, the war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, will end immediately and forever from tonight, and the naval blockade against Iran will be immediately and fully lifted. The signing of this Memorandum of Understanding will be officially carried out on Friday, June 19. Negotiations for the final agreement will be postponed until the other party fulfills its obligations in accordance with the Memorandum of Understanding. The Islamic Republic of Iran highly values the efforts of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the government of Qatar."
But before you start popping champagne corks you must understand that Trump administration officials - mostly unnamed - are painting a different picture of the agreement. For example, asenior U.S. official rejected Iran's claim that it would receive $12 billion in frozen assets unconditionally before the start of the 60-day negotiations, describing the assertion as "a spin," Axios reports:
This is completely not true. This is a pay-for-performance deal, and no frozen funds will be released without the Iranians implementing their commitments," the official said.
The point is simple... Major differences remain between the US and Iran regarding the details of the proposed MOU. Even if those details are eventually ironed out and a letter signed on Friday with both sides confirming their mutual agreement to the 14 prinicipals spelled out in the final MOU, this will mark the start of a negotiations process that will last at least two months, if not longer. And, at any time in the succeeding days, a US or Israeli violation of the MOU will likely lead Iran to renew its attacks on Israeli and/or US military targets.
This article was originally published on Sonar21.
Larry C. Johnson is a former analyst at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. He is the co-owner and CEO of BERG Associates, LLC (Business Exposure Reduction Group).
-- This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 International License