Pepe Escobar
History tells us that it was possible to design a war using Persian arrows specifically intended to destroy Crassus and the Roman legions.
On this dark street, the sun is black
The winter life is coming back
On this dark street, it's cold inside
There's no retreat from time that died
Cream, Deserted Cities of the Heart
One of my recent columns on How Iran engineered its multipolar breakthrough provoked some serious response by top old school U.S. Deep State intel operatives, now involved in global business. I was sent a consistent, detailed breakthrough about what they maintain is the main reason for President Trump to sign the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, which he is frantically spinning as his (italics mine) deal.
As one of these sources bluntly put it, "the main point you are missing is that Trump was scared stiff by June 15 being only 60 days away from the final emptying of the world reserve oil supplies, leading to the complete destruction of Donald J. Trump. That is the only reason for his about face. If he waited much longer, he would by August 15 be so behind the eight ball that he would not be able to recover And that may happen anyway."
The source was referring to a detailed risk assessment where the hard data points to mid-August 2026 as "the moment the U.S. must legally halt the emergency dumping. When that tap closes, the global oil supply deficit will instantly widen by millions of barrels per day, creating a world crisis."
Even tough he may be acting now, nothing is secured for Trump. The sources comment that "first, he (Republicans) would lose the first week in November elections. Then the Democrats would impeach him. And then he would be destroyed by lawsuits, losing all his money."
Way beyond the destiny awaiting the self-styled neo-Crassus, the sources mostly insist that "the 60-to-90-day runway we are currently sitting on is not just a timer on the physical oil in the ground; it is the remaining fuse on the largest credit bubble in human history."
Which bring us, once again, to the Rosebud in this Orson Welles-sized epic: the Strait of Hormuz, which for all practical purposes remains virtually closed.
The sources are careful to remind those willing to listen that
"what we have now is a rebellion at the Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global oil goes through there, and Iran wants that power to protect itself. When it is cut off the price of oil according to Goldman Sachs will go to $700 a barrel. It does not today as the U.S. and allies are dumping their storage on the market to hold the price down. They have about 2.5 months supply to do this. Then everything explodes. You have here the rebellion of the slaves."
So welcome to the current ultra high-stakes structural chess match - of course totally gamed by Tehran right before the start.
The "rebellion of the slaves"
The sources comment that "while rumors of oil at $700 a barrel are frequently utilized in high-level geopolitical posturing to emphasize the gravity of the bottleneck, the actual analytical forecasting coming out of the major investment banking desks is more measured, though still deeply alarming."
Let's start with Goldman Sachs: "In their official commodities research updates following the escalation, Goldman Sachs warned that a prolonged, total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could rapidly push Brent crude above $100 a barrel and realistically test the $150 mark."
Crucially, the sources maintain that "a precise look at the operational data reveals that the system's absolute breaking point - and the fuse on the derivatives bomb - will likely occur by mid-August 2026."
Enter the interplay between the physical depletion of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR); the true, practical limits of oil prices; and the terrifying, hidden two-quadrillion-dollar derivatives market. The sources analyse this interplay as a highly synchronized endgame.
Let's summarize it. As of late May 2026, only a month ago, the SPR has been drained to 365.1 million barrels, "the lowest operational level in over 40 years."
With the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed - including by the Trump blockade - the U.S. is currently drawing down an historic 1.41 million barrels a day (nearly 10 million barrels a week) to artificially suppress prices.
Then comes "the critical policy number to watch". It is not "zero barrels", but actually 243 million barrels. Why ? Because the Department of Forever Wars has certified that drawing the reserve below 243 million barrels explicitly impairs the American capability to wage war.
Once again the sources refer to their analysis: at the current velocity of 1.41 million barrels a day, the U.S. would burn through its 122-million-barrel discretionary cushion in exactly 86 days.
In their risk assessment, the sources chose to point to 60 days - accounting for potential infrastructure failures or increased military consumption. That's how we get to mid-August 2026 as the breaking point.
And that's not all. The sources note that "prices could easily breach the historic 2008 and 2022 peaks if refined product shortages trigger cascading shutdowns across European and Asian industrial sectors. However, a multi-hundred-dollar figure like $700 is widely considered a theoretical maximum that would instantly destroy global demand and collapse the entire international financial architecture before it could ever be sustained."
Once again: Tehran gamed all that to perfection. Call it the tollbooth or transit fees for any tanker wishing to pass through their Persian Gulf territorial waters; what matters is that Tehran de facto bypassed Western sanctions. The sources comment that "Washington's declaration that this is 'unacceptable' has done little to stop global shipping firms from quietly paying the fees to avoid seizure."
So when we have a scenario of the SPR being depleted compounded with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, "prices will violently spike past the 2008 records, testing $150 to $200 a barrel."
At that threshold, "the physical economy experiences immediate demand destruction. Airlines grounded, shipping networks halted, and industrial manufacturing ceased. The price cannot physically sustain $700 because the global economic machine using the oil will disintegrate at $200, causing consumption to drop to near zero."
And here we come to the clincher: "The danger is not the price tag itself, but the fact that the price spike will trigger the structural collapse of the underlying debt infrastructure".
Trump, Crassus, arrows and drones
Is the U.S. - and the global economy - out of the woods when it comes to a war that Trump himself green-lighted?
It depends on where the current elaborate MoU kabuki between Pakistan and Switzerland will lead. Oil is still not free flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. And the SPR continues to be depleted.
Neo-Crassus - prone to apocalyptic vociferations and non-stop threats to bomb Iran - simply cannot afford to have the SPR running dry. Yet that's the way things will go if Hormuz does not revert to total free flow sooner rather than later. And it's Tehran that controls the flow, not War-a-Lago.
Either neo-Crassus contains himself, or he may even become responsible for a global crisis linked to widespread sovereign debt implosion.
Even brainwashed flocks of sheep across Western pastures are now becoming aware of how the mighty Roman Empire lost to the Parthians/Persians in the Battle of Carrhae in 53 B.C. Rome at the time marched towards Asia convinced that Parthia/Persia would collapse under the weight of their power.
Carrhae was textbook asymmetry - or Decentralized Mosaic, to quote Persian tactics in the early 21st century. The Parthian army was commanded by General Surena - the General Soleimani of those times - who instead of engaging in conventional battle (think Iraq in both Gulf Wars) used the Parthian cavalry to surround the Romans and unleash wave after wave of arrows, the drones of the time.
The Parthians never ran out of ammo, because camel caravans waiting behind the battlefield were delivering fresh arrows in no time. The barrage never stopped. The mighty Roman army lost their cohesion and was epically demoralized.
Crassus had assumed the Parthians would eventually run out of arrows and be forced into close combat. That did not happen. Crassus himself ended up being killed in the middle of a failed negotiation.
That serious strategic defeat shattered the myth of Roman invincibility - just like the 2026 war shattered for good all the myths around the greatest army in the history of the galaxies.
History tells us that it was possible to design a war using Persian arrows specifically intended to destroy Crassus and the Roman legions.
And in a mirror image, we just saw a war using Persian drones and a Decentralized Mosaic specifically intended to strangle the imperial armada led by a neo-Crassus openly running a low-brow extortion/protection racket and working on behalf of an organized crime syndicate linked to a death cult entity.
His sorry carcass will keep encumbering the world for a little longer. May he not destroy the global economy in the process.